Fold equity
The share of a bet's value that comes from the times your opponent folds. It is what makes betting profitable with hands that are not the best yet.
When you bet, you can win two ways: showing the best hand at showdown, or getting your opponent to give up first. Fold equity is that second path — the value added to your bet by every time your opponent folds and the pot is yours without a fight.
Why it turns draws into bets
With A♥5♥ on K♥9♥2♣ you have 45.9% equity against a top pair like K♠Q♦ (exact number from the engine). If you just call, you’re “behind”. But if you bet instead, you add up two sources of profit:
- The times your opponent folds: you win the whole pot right now, with the worse hand.
- The times they call: you still complete the flush 35% of the time.
That sum is what makes the semi-bluff the most profitable bet in poker: the bluff doesn’t need to work every time, just for the two paths together to beat the cost.
How much you need
It depends on sizing: a half-pot bluff needs to work 33% of the time to break even; a full-pot one, 50%. The more equity your hand keeps when called, the fewer folds you need — with a strong draw, very few. Against an opponent who never folds, fold equity is zero: there you only bet for value. Reading how much you have against each opponent is half the game; the value and bluff drill trains exactly that read.